Optimizing the Rothermel model for easily Predicting spread rate of forest fire

Yazarlar

  • Jun Hua College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
  • Shiyu Zhang College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
  • Hewei Gao College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
  • Xiandong Chen College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China
  • Xingdong Li College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China Northern Forest Fire Management Key Laboratory of the State Forestry and Grassland Bureau
  • Jiuqing Liu College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Northeast Forestry University, Harbin 150040, China

Anahtar Kelimeler:

Rothermel forest fire spread model- fire behavior- nonlinear fitting- prediction of spread rate

Öz

The Rothermel model is a common method for predicting forest fire spread rate, but its application is limited, due to the complexity of the formula and too many parameters. In this paper, the Rothermel model is optimized to a simpler format, which contains fuel moisture content, wind speed, fuel load, fuel thickness 4 independent variables as input, 1 dependent variable as output and 8 parameters to be estimated. In order to validate the effectiveness of the optimized model, an indoor ignition experiment was designed and carried out, and then the fire spreading data was collected and processed in advance for training the parameters of the model. By analyzing the effectiveness of 3 nonlinear optimizing methods, the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) method was chosen to estimate the parameters of the model. Last, by comparing to the actual measured value, the precision of the optimized model was validated on the verification data which contains three groups of experiments, with the ability to predict quickly the speed of fire spreading compared with the Rothermel model in the indoor laboratory.

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İndir

Yayınlanmış

2020-10-30

Sayı

Cilt 12 Sayı 2: MCFNS October 30, 2020

Bölüm

Mathematical Modeling

Lisans

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Nasıl Atıf Yapılır

Optimizing the Rothermel model for easily Predicting spread rate of forest fire. (2020). Mathematical and Computational Forestry & Natural-Resource Sciences (MCFNS), 12(2), 62-71(10). https://tmp.mcfns.com/index.php/Journal/article/view/12.5

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