Experiment and research on predicted model of forest fire spread based on ensemble Kalman filter
Parole chiave:
Ensemble Kalman filter, Rothermel forest fire spread formula, fire spread prediction, fire spread contour errorAbstract
The spread of forest fire is an extremely complex and harmful natural phenomenon. The existing model fails to combine the influence factors of forest fire spread, and the error of prediction will increase with time. In this paper, the Ensemble Kalman Filter (ENKF) algorithm is applied to the field of forest fire spread so that it can better optimize the speed of forest fire. Firstly, the Rothermel formula of fire speed is simplified, and the speed value of simplified Rothermel is optimized by the speed value of actual measured about fire spread, so that the optimal speed value is obtained, then the optimal speed is input into Cellular Automata (CA) to simulate the spread of forest fire. Secondly, the experiment is carried out by changing the slope, bed thickness, moisture content, load and wind speed, then the measured speed of fire spread, the speed of simplified Rothermel and the optimized speed by ENKF are compared in the process of fire spread. Finally, the experimental results show that the error of fire speed optimized by ENKF is smaller, the contour simulated by CA with the ENKF is closer to the contour of real fire spread, and the highest similarity index is 0.854. The model proposed in this paper has the ability to predict the spread of forest fire indoors.
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